AP: in Pandemic Draft Plan, Borders Open (AP)

By NEDRA PICKLER and LAURAN NEERGAARD, Associated Press Writers

WASHINGTON - The government is forecasting massive disruptions if bird flu or some other super-strain of influenza arises, including as much as 40 percent of the national workforce off the job, but U.S. borders probably won't be closed to fight the spread, according to a draft of the national response plan obtained Monday by The Associated Press.

An outbreak could lead the government to limit international flights, quarantine exposed travelers and otherwise restrict movement in and around the country.

But a complete shutdown of the border would not be likely, nor would it do more than slow the pandemic's spread by a few weeks, according to the plan that is being finalized by Bush administration officials for release as early as Wednesday.

"While we will consider all options to limit the spread of a pandemic virus, we recognize complete border closure would be difficult to enforce, present foreign affairs complications and have significant negative social and economic consequences," the draft report says.

Pandemics can strike when the easy-to-mutate influenza virus shifts to a strain that people have never experienced, something that has happened three times in the past century. The government is preparing for a worst-case scenario of up to 2 million deaths in the United States.

It's impossible to predict when the next pandemic will strike, or how great its toll might be. But concern is rising that the Asian bird flu, called the H5N1 strain, might lead to one if it eventually starts spreading easily from person to person.

So far, H5N1 has struck more than 200 people since 2003, killing about half them. Virtually all the victims caught it from close contact with infected poultry or droppings.

The plan says preparedness for a pandemic could take years, and so significant steps must be taken immediately across all levels of government and the private sector to protect national security, the economy and basic functioning of society.

The report aims to energize the private sector, noting that 85 percent of systems that are vital to society, such as food production, medicine and financial services, are privately run.

"While a pandemic will not damage power lines, banks or computer networks, it has the potential ultimately to threaten all critical infrastructure by its impact on an organization's human resources by removing essential personnel from the workplace for weeks or months," the report says.

Not only would sick workers stay home, but so would those who are caring for ill family members, those who are under quarantine because of possible exposure to the flu, those who are taking care of children when schools shut down or those who simply feel safer at home.

The report envisions possible breakdowns in public order and says governors might deploy National Guard troops in response or request federal troops to maintain order.

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